A digital model for the management of the housing provision process was presented at the Technoprom-2022 forum

At the international forum of technological development, Technoprom-2022, the developers of the New Production Technologies NTI Center of Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University presented a simulation model that allows for the prediction of the consequences of management decisions aimed at improving the process of providing housing for orphans and children deprived of parental care. The project is being carried out in collaboration with the Social Policy Department of the Novosibirsk Mayor’s Office.

The issue of providing accommodation for orphans and children who have been deprived of parental care is a pertinent one for Novosibirsk. At present, the number of individuals awaiting housing exceeds 1,800. Furthermore, approximately 400 individuals become eligible for housing annually, whereas financial resources are designated solely for the construction of 150–200 flats.

In order to identify the most efficacious approach that considers diverse circumstances and situations to address issues in the social domain, we sought the expertise of Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University. There, we encountered a counter interest. The university employs mathematical modeling techniques to address management challenges in both technical and socioeconomic systems. As a pilot project, we are currently exploring alternative avenues for addressing the housing challenges faced by individuals and communities with limited financial resources. Potential strategies include enhancing the issuance of housing certificates or acquiring properties during the construction phase. In order to make an informed decision, it is essential to have a comprehensive understanding of the potential outcomes of each scenario, including a clear evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages associated with each. Our objective is to utilize mathematical modeling as a tool to facilitate the selection of optimal measures in a time-efficient manner. In the future, the intention is to extend the application of mathematical modeling techniques to all target groups of beneficiaries,‘ said Olga Nezamaeva, Head of the Social Policy Department of the Novosibirsk Mayor’s Office.

In order to construct a simulation model for the allocation of housing to orphans and children deprived of parental care, a set of methods and technologies developed by the employees of the SPbPU NTI Center for the prediction of the COVID-19 spread in the regions of the Russian Federation are employed. In developing the new model, the expertise of the SPbPU NTI Center was leveraged, with techniques that had not previously been employed by epidemiologists. This enabled the prediction of the intensity of coronavirus infection spread with day-to-day precision, facilitating more efficient planning of hospital bed capacity in Russian medical institutions.

Mathematical models provide the foundation for managerial decision-making processes. The model suggests that subsequent refinements should be made to describe the effects, beginning with the basic ones and then progressing to the finer, more detailed ones. The model should also demonstrate a high level of adequacy in relation to the phenomenon or process that it is intended to analyze. Over time, it evolves into a valuable instrument: one sets parameters and observes the outcome over the course of a year or two, taking into account the specific requirements, financial resources, and constraints,’ explained Alexey Borovkov, Vice-Rector for Digital Transformation at SPbPU, Head of the Advanced Digital Technologies SPbPU World-class Research Center, New Production Technologies SPbPU NTI Competence Center, and the Engineering Center (CompMechLab^®) of SPbPU.

The following processes are currently being considered by the employees of the SPbPU NTI Center for the Social Policy Department of the Novosibirsk Mayor’s Office, who have developed a model over a period of two months: the acquisition of the right to housing (both due to reaching the age of majority and moving from another region); provision of housing (finding a flat, announcing and conducting a purchase, giving a flat); acquisition of housing at the construction stage; provision of a housing certificate; dropping out of the queue for other reasons (e.g., acquiring a property or relocation to another region).

Furthermore, the model incorporates diverse funding formats, encompassing both upward and downward fluctuations in volume.

The developed model demonstrates the dynamics of changes in the size of the queue in the context of different categories of citizens, changes in the total number of citizens in need of housing, as well as changes in the waiting time for the realisation of the right to receive housing, taking into account various factors.

A simulation model for predicting the consequences of management decisions aimed at improving the process of providing housing for orphans and children deprived of parental care is being developed as part of the ‘Digital Transformation of Industry’ strategic project of the Priority-2030 programme implemented at SPbPU.

Source: spbstu.ru